On March 17, Bitcoin (BTC) reached $76,000, marking its highest value since early February, fueled by continued investments from institutional players in U.S. spot ETFs, following significant outflows the previous month. However, analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights a critical issue as ETF holders grapple with an average unrealized loss of $5,174, which may impact price movements near the $80,000 threshold. In his recent market update, Adler noted that the flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a complete cycle over the past month, transitioning from capitulation in mid-February to a steady recovery in the following weeks. He reported that from February 15 to 24, the seven-day average of ETF net flows remained negative, reaching a low of approximately -1,883 BTC daily on February 18. The trend shifted positively around February 25, peaking at roughly +3,387 BTC daily on March 2. Currently, Adler estimates the seven-day average at about +1,472 BTC daily, with liquidity conditions improving. Additionally, total ETF holdings increased by roughly 26,600 BTC, a rise of just over 2%. Adler interprets this as a sign of renewed institutional demand, albeit still below a significant resistance level. He identified this resistance as the ETF cohort’s realized price of $79,962, reflective of the average ETF acquisition cost for investors. With BTC trading slightly above $74,000 after reaching a six-week high, the ETF investors collectively face a paper loss exceeding $5,000. Adler emphasized that this gap is a crucial characteristic of the current market; as Bitcoin inches closer to the realized price, more investors may approach breakeven, increasing the likelihood of selling. Consequently, he warns that upward momentum around the $80,000 mark could slow unless demand can absorb the potential added supply. As of now, CoinGecko data reflects a more than 5% rise in BTC over the past week, showing a similar trend over the last month. However, while there was an almost 9% increase over two weeks, year-on-year performance remains underwhelming, with the asset down nearly 11%, now over 41% shy of its all-time high. For the moment, Adler is closely monitoring the $80,000 level as a pivotal point. He stated, ‘A spot close above $79,962 combined with sustained ETF net inflows above +2,000 BTC daily would indicate a regime change.’
