U.S. prosecutors have charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, known online as ‘AlphaRaccoon,’ for allegedly exploiting confidential internal search data to secure approximately $1.2 million in profits via bets on prediction market platform Polymarket. A criminal complaint unsealed in the Southern District of New York reveals that Spagnuolo allegedly accessed nonpublic ‘Year in Search 2025’ data and utilized it to trade on Google-related markets prior to the public announcement. Prosecutors have levied charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering against him, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) brought a parallel civil complaint for insider trading violations under the Commodity Exchange Act. The complaint notes that Google maintains strict confidentiality over its “Year in Search” rankings due to their commercial significance and the coordinated public reveal designed to attract media attention, user engagement, and advertising demand. Investigators indicated that Spagnuolo accessed a Google internal tool containing sensitive trend data that bore a “Google Confidential” warning. From October to December 2025, he reportedly used the AlphaRaccoon account to place bets on at least 23 Google-related prediction markets, including contracts related to the “#1 Searched Person on Google this year” and “Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025.” Following his review of Google’s internal data on October 15, 2025, Spagnuolo placed trades favoring Kendrick Lamar as the top searched figure while betting against Pope Leo XIV. Subsequent trades continued over several weeks using insights unavailable to the public. On November 27, 2025, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed confidential search rankings revealing that musician d4vd had surpassed Kendrick Lamar as the top trending person. Within three hours, the AlphaRaccoon account allegedly placed bets supporting d4vd, despite the market initially assigning a negligible probability to that outcome. The filing states that between October 15 and December 4, 2025, the account risked around $2.75 million in Google Year in Search-related markets, ultimately generating approximately $1.2 million in profits after the official release of results on December 4. Additionally, authorities assert that Spagnuolo attempted to obscure the origins of his profits by transferring cryptocurrency through multiple wallets and privacy-focused services. The scrutiny facing prediction markets is growing, highlighted by recent actions from rival platform Kalshi, which banned three U.S. political candidates for placing bets related to their own races, underscoring the importance of regulatory compliance in trading activities.
